Research Desk

Intelligence Feed

Curated macro signals and thematic positioning updates. Source-attributed, dated, and stress-tested before they reach the book.

Macro Signal

Fed holds; real yields drift lower into H2

Policy rate left unchanged with the dot plot signaling two cuts by year-end. Falling real yields historically support long-duration growth and gold — both core sleeves. Position implication: maintain AI/semis band, no add; gold ETC carries its weight.

Signal Tier: A 10 Jun 2026
Macro Signal

Foundry capex guidance revised upward

Leading-edge capacity bookings extend through 2027, reinforcing the supply-constraint thesis behind the semiconductor sleeve. Watch concentration: the AI/semis aggregate sits near its 38% ceiling — strength is trimmed, not chased.

Signal Tier: B 06 Jun 2026
Sector Rotation

30-day weight shift

Net flow across thematic sleeves, month over month.

AI / Semis
+1.6%
Defense
+0.8%
Global Core
−0.7%
Fixed / Gold
+0.5%
Cash USD
−2.2%
Thematic Positioning

Block summary

AI Overweight
Semiconductors Overweight
Defense Neutral
Energy Transition Underweight
New Space Gateway Neutral

New Space exposure is conditional — entry only post-IPO at D+3 after pricing confirmation.

Audit Trail

Signal Log

Every gate decision is logged — executed and rejected alike. Click a column to sort.

Date Asset Signal Type Entry Status
2026-06-09NVDATrend continuation — D1/H4 confluence1,142.00Active
2026-06-04TSMBreakout retest — volume confirmed216.40Active
2026-05-28QDVETranche rebalance — band drift37.80Active
2026-05-21BTCRegime shift — volatility compression96,400Active
2026-05-15AVGOEarnings momentum — gap hold1,855.00Pending
2026-05-07DFNDThematic add — review flag check13.95Closed
2026-04-30SGLNReal-yield hedge — macro tier A55.10Closed
2026-04-22SMGBRejected at gate — WHT verification openClosed